It is telling that parts of the environmental movement attempt to ram home their message by telling the rest of the world that they are stupid for not getting it.

As we have shown here on Climate Resistance, some argue that psychological mechanisms might be to blame for our failure to respond to climate change, and devise techniques that might ‘encourage’ us to behave ‘responsibly’. Others claim that the feckless public’s scepticism and denial are the result of conspiracies to distort science’s message, or that a ‘balance’ of views in the media gives a credibility to false ideas. Some even say that the issue of climate change is just too serious and big an issue for democracy to cope with – we vote selfishly, and our sinful minds cannot possibly understand the enormity of the tragedy that we are making. What fools we are.

But the last thing those who make such claims ever look at to explain their failure is their own argument. So who are they calling stupid?

All of us, it seems. One such case is ‘The Age of Stupid’ – a film that points its big pointy finger at the people of the world, and damns them for their stupidity.

Franny Armstrong, the director of the film, was at the Hay Festival last weekend, sharing the stage with climate change minister, Ed Miliband. As the Guardian’s James Randerson reports:

What we saw on stage was a clash between the absolutism of the single-minded campaigner and the art of realpolitik. For Armstrong the situation is clear. Already, 150,000 people are dying each year as a result of human-caused climate change – according to the World Health Organisation – so the consumerist growth model that has created the problem has to go.

But, countered Miliband, that would deny developing countries like China and India their chance to grow their economies. “If you say to them look, we’ve had this growth model for 50 years or whatever it is but now we’ve discovered it’s a real problem and you can’t carry on growing, there’s no way to can persuade them to be part of a global agreement,” he said.

Here is what they said to each other, according to the Guardian’s podcast coverage of the festival:

MILIBAND: Even after the recession, even after putting a price on carbon, passenger demand in the UK is expected to double. Now your position says, err…

ARMSTRONG: Ninety-five per cent cut in flights by 2020.

MILIBAND: You’d like a ninety-five per cent cut in flights?

ARMSTRONG: Yep. No, the science… It doesn’t matter what I’d like… If we’re going to prevent runaway climate change, which is the goal. Then ninety-five percent cut in flights, yeah. But I think what you said is absolutely key. Like it was only one generation ago, perhaps two [laughs] that err, flying was a magical once-in-a-lifetime experience that you’d look forward to. You know, you’d save up, and you’d go, you know, once a decade. That’s what we’re talking about, everybody in the room could fly about once a decade. And then wed be back to being a magical experience and what’s wrong with that? I think we have to look at the level of sacrifice, don’t we, because what we’re saying is you think the British people wouldn’t agree to sacrifice [laughs] erm, their right to go on holiday as many times as they… fly, as many times as they want to.

MILIBAND: But…

ARMSTRONG: Hang on, let me finish. But in order… We’re therefore gonna ask other people in other countries to sacrifice their lives. I.E. the hundred and fifty thousand people who are already dying from climate change every year, according to the World Health Organisation.

MILIBAND: I’m not saying that, come on. I’m not saying that.

ARMSTRONG: No but you are. One follows the other.

This exchange epitomises the climate ‘debate’ in a number of ways.

First, it isn’t a debate. Miliband and Armstrong’s positions are not counterposed. Miliband is nothing if not a committed environmentalist. Yet he recognises that what both he and Armstrong want ain’t a vote-winner, and the public remain unconvinced about the environmental issue. Knowing that environmental policies therefore lack the legitimacy such far-reaching policies ought to have, he recently called for the green movement to demonstrate the kind of mass-movement that has driven political change in the past. As he said last year:

When you think about all the big historic movements, from the suffragettes, to anti-apartheid, to sexual equality in the 1960s, all the big political movements had popular mobilization. Maybe it’s an odd thing for someone in government to say, but I just think there’s a real opportunity and a need here.

But the environmental movement cannot muster it. Too few people – only a small number of protesters and the UK establishment, it seems – are interested in the subject at all. Nonetheless, Miliband has been instrumental in driving forward the environmental agenda, which forms a substantial part of the government’s own legislation. Because it does suit the political establishment, it has proceeded without any real parliamentary scrutiny – virtually all MPs, with only a few exceptions, are entirely uncritical of anything ‘green’ – and without environmentalism being tested at the ballot box. This democratic oversight is overcome by deferring many of the parameters of our environmental strategy to an unaccountable, unelected panel – the Climate Change Committee, and of course, to the Stern Report, and to the IPCC; each papering over the nuances, doubt, uncertainties and scientific caution of the previous.

The second is the way Armstrong hides her naked prejudice behind science. It’s not her that wants a 95 per cent cut in flights, it’s science. It has spoken to her. But wherever Armstrong got her claim that a 95 per cent cut in flights is necessary to avoid ‘runaway climate change’ and the deaths of 150,000 people, it was not from scientific literature, and it was not from scientists. It’s an argument that has been assembled from bits of science, and strung together like a Frankenstein monster – a highly dubious form of inductive reasoning which allows her to claim that Miliband is making an argument for ‘other people in other countries to sacrifice their lives’. Her chain of reasoning is that i) flights cause CO2, ii) CO2 causes global warming, iii) which will cause runaway climate change, iv) which kills people – the WHO says so, v) these are mostly poor people in other countries. There is no sense of proportion at any stage of this form of reasoning. There is no attention given to the caveats and caution or scope that the original research – if indeed it was research – presented.

This is a major problem for Armstrong if she wants to persuade anybody who isn’t stupid. Anyone who isn’t stupid is able to see for themselves, with just a little research, how her argument stacks up, or doesn’t.

The statistic of 150,000 climate change deaths is from the WHO’s The World Health Report 2002, page 72 of which says:

Climate change was estimated to be responsible in 2000 for approximately 2.4% of worldwide diarrhoea, 6% of malaria in some middle income countries and 7% of dengue fever in some industrialized countries. In total, the attributable mortality was 154 000 (0.3%) deaths and the attributable burden was 5.5 million (0.4%) DALYs. About 46% this burden occurred in SEAR-D, 23% in AFR-E and a further 14% in EMR-D.

‘Estimated’. There is no footnote explaining the method by which the estimate was achieved. for that, we need to look to press releases. This one, from Reuters, via commondreams.org:

The book estimated climate change was to blame for 2.4 percent of cases of diarrhoea because, Campbell-Lendrum said, the heat would exacerbate bacterial contamination of food.

Climate change was also behind two percent of all cases of malaria, because increased rainfall created new breeding grounds for mosquitoes which carry the disease, he said.

There is a logical problem here with using a model to attribute deaths from cause A to ultimate cause B. By virtue of being directly caused by A, we cannot say empirically, that B was responsible for any particular death. The relationship between the cause of climate change, and an Nth order effect of climate change is theoretical, not empirical, and is itself based on a speculative chain of reasoning which is unlikely to carry much necessity. People who were killed by malaria, which was caused by an increased rainfall, which was caused by climate change, which was caused by somebody driving a 4×4 in South London, were killed, first and foremost, by malaria. The relationship between the ultimate cause (CO2) and ultimate effect (150,000 deaths from disease) – which we have to take at face value, because the WHO have decided not to tell us how it was established – is contingent: things could have happened otherwise. For instance, we might have abolished malaria and dengue fever, and the developing world might have been more developed such that more people had fridges and freezers, and medicine – very simple medicine, as it happens – to deal with diarrhoea. If that had happened – and it’s not a stretch of the imagination – there would have been no deaths from climate change. So why campaign for less cars, rather than more fridges and more medicine?

But let’s be charitable to the WHO and their researchers, for a moment. Perhaps there is a value in estimating the influence of climate changes on disease, based on assumptions. It might open up some discussion about strategies that might be followed to confront malaria, and where investments might be best made. Theoretical models aren’t in themselves, ‘bad’, and can be useful to testing existing knowledge, perhaps between different disciplines. But, look, these researchers aren’t as interested in the 98% of malaria cases which aren’t ’caused’ by climate change as the 2% that they assume is caused by climate change.

Even according to WHO’s own statistics, climate change is just about the least pressing problem for anyone in the developing world. Even being overweight or physically inactive in regions where we typically understand life to be characterised by scarcity of food, and hard physical labour are each bigger problems than climate change. The WHO table attributes 404,418 deaths in the high-mortality developing world to being overweight, nearly three times as many as it claims die from climate change (144,714). That’s nothing, of course, compared to the problem of being undernourished, which kills 5,610,300 – 38 times as many as climate change. Yet, arguably it is a much much easier problem to solve, at face value, than climate change. Moreover, the likes of Armstrong repeat the claim that ‘climate change is the biggest problem facing mankind’, and that ‘climate change will be worse for the poor’. Is this really the picture that emerges from this research?

To read the oft-quoted headlines that the WHO’s report had generated since being published in 2002, you’d have thought so.

A Google search for 150000 deaths climate change WHO yields 150,000 search results. Perhaps the least interesting statistic that the WHO generated… indeed, the item nearly at the bottom of the table… is what generated the largest number of headlines.

More to the point, whereas it is relatively easy to measure the number of deaths attributed to a first-order cause, such as malaria, there have been no deaths anywhere in the world that can be directly attributable to climate change. Yet even establishing how many people die from malaria is fraught with complications. They aren’t all counted. None of the statistics represented by the WHO’s research are empirical ‘facts’. They are all the result of projections, estimations, and assumptions, calculated from known data of varying quality.

But the result of the theoretical model is treated outside the scope of the study as an empirical result. It is presented as a fact that 150,000 people die a year from climate change. It is Armstrong’s starting point. Without it, she wouldn’t have a case. Or at least she wouldn’t have had one until late last week. Because that’s when Kofi Annan’s Global Humanitarian Forum launched its much-publicised report (pdf) revealing that it’s actually 300,000 people per year dying as a result of climate change.

The Guardian jumped on it, naturally, calling on George Monbiot, Mark Lynas and John Vidal to hit its significance home. Of those, only Vidal mentioned the highly speculative nature of the estimate. Lynas was the silliest:

These numbers are vitally important, because they provide a direct evidence-based link between culpability – those responsible for the emissions driving climate change – and victimhood, those who are suffering the consequences, including losing their lives [...] The legal implications are analogous to those faced by the tobacco industry once evidence solidified about the links between smoking and cancer. Shareholders and investors in fossil fuels need to be aware that they now face a liability that will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars – their products are killing people, and it is only a matter of time before the wheels of international justice begin to turn.

Just like Franny Armstrong, Lynas grasps at the statistics as objective support for his politics. In his case it’s that those dirty oil companies are guilty of crimes against humanity and that he now sees a way to quantify those crimes. Of course, it’s pure fantasy. All one would have to do to counter his case would be to put together a report ‘estimating’ the number of lives saved each year by the burning of fossil fuels – through the provision of emergency services, heating, nutrition etc etc. But there’s the rub. The WHO isn’t going to carry out such a study. Just as it’s not going to carry out a study that comes up with a figure for the number of deaths caused by a stable climate. And nor is any celebrity diplomat with a charity at his disposal and connections at the highest level. As we say quite often, the politics is prior to the science. The WHO and Kofi Annan are responding to a hunger for statistics that confirm that climate change is real, happening and that something has to be done. Forget the starving millions, there are the appetites of directionless journalists, politicians, NGOs and diplomats to satisfy. Not to mention intergovernmental organisations such as the WHO itself. Neither the WHO nor the GHF have much to go on, of course, as they are quite prepared to admit in their respective reports. They do the best they can to cobble something together, shrouding their findings in caveats, qualifications, provisos and caution. But once the figures are out there, those caveats, qualifications, provisos and caution can be forgotten about. The job is done. Anyone is free to use these stats as they like. WHO won’t complain. Nor will Kofi Annan.

That’s the trouble with political consensuses. They are consensual. The only ones willing to challenge them are by definition outside of the consensus. And if you’re outside the political consensus, you’re a denier. And if you’re a denier, you can’t be trusted. Your money is corrupting. Your challenges can be written off as politically motivated. You can be ignored.

So, while the existence of a political consensus on climate change means that anyone who does not sign up to it is wrong by definition, the only ones who can possibly challenge that consensus are those who do not sign up to it. And indeed, even to try and challenge the consensus is evidence that one sits outside it and is, therefore, guilty of denialism.

And meanwhile, Lynas can demand that climate change must take precedence over all of the other problems out there that are ‘worse for the poor’ (which he does) – indeed, that are worse for the poor than climate change, according to no less than the WHO itself – and still be a respected member of the political climate change community.

It all leaves us in a farcical situation in which it does not matter what one’s own personal interests are, just as long as they incline one towards the proper sort of political bias. So, while just about the only group likely to make a case for the historical benefits of fossil fuels is the oil industry – who cannot be trusted because they are the fossil fuel industry – the press and politicians are more than happy to swallow the GHF report despite the fact that much of the crucial data on which its 300,000 figure is based is provided by insurance giants Munich Re, when risk insurers have as much interest in generating fear of climate change as Exxon has in generating doubt. And despite the fact that Munich Re’s data is highly questionable.

In the heat of the climate battle, excited activists like Armstrong and Lynas have absorbed

the numerical product of assumptions as concrete, cold, objective, hard, solid and unchallengeable, necessary facts about the world. These nebulous and often spurious assertions are taken out of any context in which they can be seen in proportion, and become the foundation of moral reasoning. In this way, the likes of Armstrong and Lynas project superficially plausible, but fundamentally flawed statistics into the future to make statements about what is happening in the present. Hence, Armstrong tells Miliband that he’s asking other people to sacrifice their lives so that we can go on holiday.

We might say, ‘ho hum, it’s just a couple of eco-loons’, nobody’s listening. But Miliband – a senior UK politician – is listening. He’s made two appearances with Armstrong recently: first at the launch of her film, and now at the Hay festival, apparently in order to demonstrate the UK government’s commitment to the environmental agenda. Why else would he be there? Try getting a politician such as Miliband to debate with a climate change ‘denier’, let alone a ‘sceptic’, let alone someone who’s critical of the politics. He would run a mile. Instead, he poses on stages with eco-warriors.

Even when she’s clearly mistaken, and trying to embarrass him, Miliband cannot point out to Armstrong that she’s a lunatic. He can neither challenge, nor expose her bogus way of thinking about things. He can’t assure the audience that she’s making stuff up, or taking things out of proportion, or that ‘one thing’ really does not ‘follow the other’, as she claims. Far from demonstrating the shallowness of the ‘one thing following the other’ argument, he instead tells Armstrong, that, yes, people aren’t going to give up their flights, but that he’s happy to make them more expensive:

I’m saying that we have to achieve the scientific… the… the… the cuts in emissions that science demands of us. And that is very important. But… but I’m saying that flying is the most difficult thing to tackle, partly technologically, err, speaking. I am saying that the price of airline tickets will go up including in the United Kingdom. We… we’re… it’s part of our emissions trading scheme, which means there is a price on err carbon emissions from aviation from the first… for the first time. I’m saying actually domestic flights will get much less err frequent, people will do them much less, and you got to expand high speed rail and you’ve got to have a big change in the relation to err public transport. But I am also saying that as someone in the art of persuasion, it… you know, you have probably twenty per cent of people in this country who are deeply committed on climate change. Maybe forty per cent who are… sort of… think it’s kind of… you know… right to do something but aren’t particularly engaged in it. And then a whole group of other people. In the art of persuasion, I’m not convinced that saying to people in my constituency, who are able to do something, and go to places that their parents could not have dreamed of, that that’s all got to end overnight is realistic. Which is what you’re saying.

Is it conceivable that the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change has not heard the ‘150,000 deaths from climate change’ factoid before? Of course he has. Can he really not know what its limitations are, and what criticisms have been made of it? Of course he does. But it wouldn’t be expedient to start challenging the very people he is turning to in the hope that they, through their films and through fear-mongery, will create support, and therefore legitimacy, for the policies he has devised.

He must think we’re stupid.

Here’s some more Stupid factoid tennis between Armstrong and Miliband.

15 Responses to The Age of the Age of Stupid

  • Another good dissection. I wonder if you would spend some time taking apart the Annan report if you get the chance?

  • Why does nobody attack the cement industry?

    Also, I saw this and thought of you:
    http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2563272

  • To Lee Jones #1 on taking apart the Annan report:
    I had a go at criticising the Annan report on comments to the articles by Monbiot and Lynas on Guardian Envoironment (my comments are easy to find: they have a red skittle top left). I invited other sceptics to join in, but got little response. Most commenters on CiF prefer to slag each other off. I did get in a plug for C-R ‘s excellent articles on Munich Re, and felt I made a few points which seemed to shut up the usual warmist nitpickers for a while.
    It’s nothing but a lengthy powerpoint presentation put together by a green New York marketing group called Dalberg Associates. Picking it apart line by line would be remarkably easy, (though boring). It would be worth doing though, if the report attains any kind of status as a key document in the global warming corpus. Perhaps it could be done here by volunteers as a separate thread?

  • Very interesting article, as usual. I’m particularly interested in the table of mortality. Could you provide a link to where this came from please?

  • Snowdon,

    The graph was copied from the WHO’s 2002 The world health report 2002 – Reducing Risks, Promoting Healthy Life .

    http://www.who.int/whr/2002/en/index.html

    The data in our table copies table 4.9 on page 98 of the full report.

  • Thanks for the quick reply. Of course, the 150,000 deaths a year has now moved up to 300,000. That figure comes from the GHF who initially didn’t put the report online because they are “the most disorganised humanitarian group I have ever come across” (G. Monbiot).

    It is, however, now online at http://www.ghf-geneva.org. More of a brochure than a scientific report, really. The 300,000 estimate is addressed on p. 90, and that gives a reference (no. 21) which is the WHO’s 2004 report: The Global Burden of Disease. That is available here:

    http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GBD_report_2004update_full.pdf

    And although I haven’t read it all, a quick search shows that it doesn’t mention ‘climate change’ or ‘global warming’ once. Any ideas?

  • To geoffchambers.
    Why are worried that the Annan Report may gain any status as a key document in the global warming corpus? Are you afraid that that people might believe it?

    Do you think that picking it apart will prove it to be untrue? Or is your motive simply to cast doubt on its authenticity? Given that the impact of climate change is somewhat difficult to measure, it shouldn´t be too difficult. Perhaps you should have a go at discrediting Kofi Annan while you are at it, something about how he is only in it for the money kind of thing.

    Alternatively you could do some field work yourself. Go take a look, or at least talk to the people involved: those apparently affected and those who are working with the agencies that helped compile the report.

    This would be considerably less boring than picking apart the report line by line, and may add an important ring of truth to your conclusions if you were to include some first hand accounts and observations.

  • To SJones.

    There’s this process called falsification. Scientists use it to prove/disprove theories. Why should it be unacceptable to inspect the claims made in the Annan report and test the science? Are you suggesting that Kofi Annan should be taken at his word and no investigation be made into the validity of his claims?

    UN and Warmist consensus may operate by those principles but real science doesn’t.

  • to SJones at #6
    You ask why I am worried about the Annan Report, and you follow up with a number of questions and suggestions as to what I might do, some of them obviously ironical. We are far outside the sphere of peer-reviewed science here. I imagine your reference to field work, first hand accounts and observations is just your polite way of saying “What are your qualifications for disagreeing with x thousand climate scientists?” etc. My answer is: none. The whole point of my numerous interventions on blogs like the Guardian’s Comment is Free is to demonstrate that what passes for science jounalism there is often so trivially inadequate that any non-specialist with an ounce of reasoning power can demolish the arguments put forward, with no need of the specialised knowledge required to criticise the peer-reviewed science. (C-R does the same thing better and at greater length here, but unfortunately to a smaller audience).
    I agree with Lee Jones at #1 that it would be useful to prepare a thorough analysis of tha Annan report, not because of him (and your suggestion that I attack the man is really out of place on a blog like this) but simply because the Guardian, and similar green-leaning media, have obviously decided that this is going to be one of their key reference documents in the propaganda wars leading up to the Copenhagen Conference. (They did the same thing with a recent MIT document forecasting temperature rises of 7°C by the end of the century. I bored myself silly pointing out over and over again that the report they cited was based on research financed by Exxon. It’s childish, but it might just shut them up).
    And as I made clear in my comments here and on the Guardian articles, what is needed is not fieldwork and peer-reviewed science, just some simple internet spadework which any competent junior science correspondent could do. And this is the true nature of the political / media scandal which C-R treats at a more abstract level: it is unthinkable that a science journalist would dare to propose a critical treatment of global warming in Britain today.
    (Look at the long-running farce of Ben Goldberg’s Bad Science column in the Guardian. Week after week he criticises journalists and their homeopathic / aroma-therapist friends, while in a parallel universe, over at Guardian Environment, other journalists and their climatologist/ carbon-trading friends are up to precisely the same tricks).

  • With respect Mr Chambers, I cannot accept that picking apart a report like this by non experts will have much validity. You may be be able to highlight weak arguments or even incorrect syntax, but ultimately it will only lead to more questions, which can only be addressed by those working in the field or by experts.
    This is not to say that the report should not be questioned, nor that its reliability be substantiated. I think you can rest assured it will come under scrutiny, particularly if it is to stand as a key document

    I am simply questioning your motives, which judging from the nature of your comments, seem to veer toward the tendency to ridicule this report and undermine its conclusions, rather than a demand for an objective analysis.

  • Sjones – ‘it will only lead to more questions, which can only be addressed by those working in the field or by experts.’

    That’s possibly the worst argument for not scrutinising the product of a think tank that we’ve ever seen.

    Heaven forfend that people with influence over the public agenda should be accountable and answerable to the public. The whole world would surely come tumbling down.

  • to SJones at #10
    Thanks for your polite and reasoned objections to my proposal for analysing the Annan report. I’m not used to that on Comment is Free. And I’ve no problem with you questioning my motives, since I agree with the editors here that the the battle is not so much against the global warming thesis as such, but rather against the idea that the debate is a purely scientific one among experts. I’m not a scientist engaged in some value-free search for objective truth, I’m just a citizen with certain stubborn ideas about the rôle of the media in a democracy, and I don’t like seeing intelligent journalists in a respected paper (some of them with science PhDs) pretending to believe tosh, presumably in the service of some higher moral purpose, like saving the planet.

    As an example of the level of reasoning in the report, take this, from p15:
    “More than one third of the world’s population are [sic] physically vulnerable to climate change”. This statement is backed up by a footnote referring to article in the Independent which quotes a study by a consultancy specialising in the mapping of risk. The article states:
    “The originality of the new study is that it does not predict global warming’s impacts … Instead, it looks at how countries are fitted to meet them. ‘We’re not saying anything about the changing climate,’ said one of the report’s authors. ‘We’re saying: … If there were an impact, how vulnerable would the country be?’”
    So the source for the headline claiming that one third of the world’s population are vulnerable to climate change is a report whose authors specifically say that they know nothing about the changing climate. That was just one footnote out of 200+ which I bothered to look up.

    This report is junk. Oxfam the IPCC, and the other organisations which have lent their authority to it should be ashamed. To wait for this supposedly expert document to come under scrutiny (presumably from more experts) is a negation of normal democratic practice. It’s precisely up to ordinary citizens – Guardian readers, Oxfam contributors, voters – to let the “authorities” know that there is no need to be hypnotised by the pseudoscience.

  • Unfortunately, Naturogenic Global Warmers have made the classic mistake of overestimating the intelligence of The People.

    While we argue with facts and logic, Al Gore shows clips of polar bears.

    Given a society with the maturity of a 6 year old, and even less of an attention span…really, who would you have expected to win?

  • No John Bailo, I think the whole argument of the Climate Resistance site is that The People have not been sold on AGW, but that the Establishment is using AGW propaganda in pursuit of its own ends…

  • oops – did Ed just say above 2C we get NEGATIVE feedback…. (1st vid)

    planet saved…

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